There is roughly a 35% chance of a tie for first. Most likely, that will be a 2-way tie between Caruana and Karjakin. In that case, Karjakin will probably have the better tiebreaks. The first tiebreak is the head-to-head score between the players. That will likely be a tie, since they drew their earlier game. The second tiebreaker is number of wins, which favors Karjakin.
I have to say that number of wins is a ridiculous tiebreaker. If 2 players have the same score, then the player with more wins is also the player with more losses. Picking the player with more losses doesn't make any sense. More thought should have been given to the tiebreak rules, since the stakes are so high and there is a good chance of tie. At the beginning of the tournament, you can see that the model predicted a 23.5% chance of a tie for first (to calculate this, note that the probability of a tie = 1 - probability that one player wins). This also indicates that we should find a new format for picking the challenger to the World Championship; the double-round robin will so frequently fails to select a winner. This is a project I would like to explore later.
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