2016 Candidates Tournament - Round 13

Nakamura beat Topalov, while the rest of the games were drawn. Caruana and Karjakin continue to lead.

Methodology

The key games in the last round will be Karjakin - Caruana and Svidler - Anand. The winner of Karjakin - Caruana will certainly win the tournament. If they draw, then the first tiebreak is head to head score, and the second tiebreak is most wins. Thus,

Karjakin - Caruana draw + Anand draws or loses -> Karjakin wins the tournament. He will have an equal score in his mini-match with Caruana, but more wins.

Karjakin - Caruana draw + Anand wins -> Caruana wins the tournament. Karjakin, Caruana, and Anand will all have an equal number of points. However, Caruana has a plus score against Anand and an equal score with Karjakin, while Karjakin has an equal score against both. Therefore, Caruana has the best head to head score, so he wins based on that tiebreak.

Therefore, the probabilities for becoming the winner of the tournament are

Karjakin: 61.585%

Caruana: 38.415%