First, we'll look at the traditional forecast, which is based on the player's ratings. Ding Liren's chances soared after he won the first game with Black. Given that he is the favorite in the rapid tiebreaks, his overall chances of retaining the title were around 50-50. Gukesh bounced back with a win in Game 3. However, a tied match after 3 games is good news for the underdog Ding Liren.
In my previous post, I also considered a forecast based on the players' performance ratings. Gukesh remains the big favorite:
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